Impact of Taliban Takeover on India

India seems to be at a crossroad concerning the maintenance of this relationship and initiation of further attempts of reconciliation with the country or distancing itself from the same.

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Based on the history of the relationship shared between India and Afghanistan so far, questions concerning the role of the former and its impact on the same, following the Taliban's takeover cannot be explicitly stated, hence continue to be ambivalent. Having shared historical and cultural ties, in addition to having been neighbours in the past, the relations between the two countries are considered to have been cordial over the decades.

India was also the only South Asian country to recognize the Soviet-backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in the 1980s, though relations diminished during the 1990s Afghan civil war and the subsequent take-over of a government. India is the largest regional provider of humanitarian and reconstruction aid to the present-day Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and even till today are engaged in various construction projects, as part of India’s rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan (The Financial Express 2021).

Amongst the many projects and forms of mutual assistance, one of the most significant steps concerning Indo-Afghan relations in recent times is considered to be the Strategic Partnership Agreement that was signed between the two countries in 2011. Therefore on a one-to-one basis, be in terms of the relationship shared between the two countries or in terms of the people constituting both the countries, the equation is friendly.

However, with regards to India's relationship with the Taliban, the latter's reliance on Pakistan tends to impact the same. In addition to the said reliance, considering the Indo-Pak relationship, it is hard to determine the impact of the Taliban takeover on India along clear lines. With the history of good relations with Afghanistan so far, India seems to be at a crossroad concerning the maintenance of this relationship and initiation of further attempts of reconciliation with the country or distancing itself from the same.

A number of concerns, in this regard, require attention and these range from the risk of the possibility of an increase in terrorist activity across the nation to the aforementioned maintenance of diplomatic ties with the country. One of the most important factors here point towards the risk of increased terrorist activity in Kashmir and elsewhere as the Taliban's equation with Pakistan comes into the picture.

One of the points that stem from the declaration signed between the USA and the Taliban states "guarantees to prevent the use of Afghan soil by any international terrorist groups or individuals against the security of the United States and its allies." However well-intentioned these words might be, there is little clarity on how these guarantees will be upheld. After all, the factions to be reconciled will also include those elements who have fronted the ISI’s war against India from within Afghanistan (The Financial Express 2021).

Secondly, with instances of attacks on Indian elements as exemplified by the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008, the situation continues to be precarious. The Haqqani group of the Taliban which is said to have carried out this attack is considered to have close ties with the ISI of Pakistan which even back then was suspected by the Indian government to be behind the attack. The withdrawal of US forces from the already tense region and scenario, only adds to the issue.

As mentioned before, the diplomatic ties that India shares with Afghanistan that now reflects an unstable government puts forth another question. As discussed above, this dilemma calls for a tough decision to be made, which although stems from a diplomatic bond, extends to political, economic, military and most importantly, security concerns.

Nevertheless, India is now expected to engage itself with both, its own leadership, and that of the newly re-established regime in Afghanistan to achieve clarity on the subject.